According to the latest on-chain data, 3.4 million bitcoins held by short-term investors are currently generating unrealized losses. This figure, amounting to a record-breaking $282.2 billion, represents the highest level in seven years. Historical precedents suggest that similar selling pressure often leads to market capitulation and significant price corrections in BTC. An analysis of the current situation requires a detailed examination of market dynamics. Cryptocurrencies are volatile and risky. Invest responsibly.
Short-Term Holders (STH), defined as entities holding bitcoin for less than 155 days, are currently facing exceptionally unfavorable market conditions.
As noted by the analytics firm Glassnode in its latest report: “Recent price volatility has created exhausting conditions for new market participants, leading to a sharp increase in the supply held by Short-Term Holders in loss, reaching 3.4 million BTC.”
From a relative perspective, over 90% of the STH supply is currently below its acquisition price. This level of unrealized losses among short-term investors has occurred only twice during the current bull market — during the correction in August 2023 and following the unwinding of yen carry trades in August 2024.
An analysis of age cohorts within the STH group reveals the following average acquisition prices:
Cryptocurrencies are volatile and risky. Invest responsibly.
Despite the challenging situation for Short-Term Holders (STH), the report identifies positive signals related to the formation of new Long-Term Holders (LTH):
"The supply held by Long-Term Holders is beginning to rise again, highlighting investors’ preference for HODLing and accumulation strategies."
Particularly noteworthy is the cohort holding assets for 3–6 months, which is showing the lowest selling activity since May 2021 — despite having acquired their positions at prices around $100,000.
Cryptocurrencies are volatile and risky. Invest responsibly.
The report identifies a characteristic pattern in the current market cycle:
"Historically, bull markets have peaked following the redistribution of the majority of network value from long-term investors to new, price-sensitive speculators."
Currently, Short-Term Holders (STH) control approximately 40% of the network's value, down from a peak of 50% in early 2025. This level remains significantly lower than in previous cycles, which ranged between 70% and 90%.
Supply Held by Long-Term Holders (LTH). Source: Glassnode
Glassnode suggests the following explanations:
Crypto-asset prices are significantly more susceptible to sharp fluctuations than traditional financial instruments. High price volatility may lead to sudden losses and unpredictable outcomes. Trading crypto-assets involves a substantial risk of capital loss.
This message does not constitute investment advice, a personal recommendation, an offer, or an invitation to buy or sell crypto-assets. Any references to past or future performance of a given crypto-asset, index, or investment product are not and should not be considered a reliable indicator of future results. We do not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of this message.
Glassnode has identified structural support levels around $71,000 and $74,000, reflecting significant accumulation zones.
Despite considerable pressure on Short-Term Holders (STH), Long-Term Holders (LTH) are entering an accumulation phase, which may lead to an increase in their aggregated supply in the coming periods. In the short term, however, selling pressure may prevail, potentially resulting in a test of levels around $70,000 before a stronger rebound.
Cryptocurrencies are volatile and risky. Invest responsibly.
